In his weekly column for West Sussex newspapers, Andrew Griffith MP shares his views on the upcoming Autumn Budget.
Today marks exactly one month to go until the Budget on 28th October. I feel a Budget tells you a great deal about a government. Not just what it chooses to spend, but what it is prepared to cut, what it is willing to tax and which difficult decisions it would rather put off. In a month’s time, John Healey will have to make those choices for the first time as Chancellor.
Healey’s own defence plan already leaves him £4.7 billion to find. The money is needed over the next four years to fund commitments the Government has already made on defence. On the 28th October, Healey will have to tell us where it is coming from.
I have been clear in the past that we need to see these defence commitments honoured. In the current international climate Britain cannot afford to treat defence as an optional extra. The war in Ukraine and the threats from further afield to Europe have made that obvious to all that defence needs to be reprioritised – however, the answer cannot simply be another raid on taxpayers. With taxes already heading to record levels, and the OBR forecasting the tax take reaching 38.5% of GDP by 2030-31. Families and businesses have already had to absorb higher taxes and frozen thresholds under this Government. Reaching for them again would be the easy choice, but a disastrous one.
The harder question sits on the spending side. Welfare spending is forecast to rise from £352.8 billion this year to £406.9 billion by 2030-31. There must always be proper support for people who genuinely cannot work, but a welfare system also has to help people who can work back into employment, and it has to remain affordable for those paying for it.
Ministers cannot keep avoiding difficult decisions and then present higher taxes as the only answer. Healey understands both sides of this argument better than most. Properly funding the Armed Forces matters. So does getting control of public spending. In four weeks we will see what choices he has made. What I do not want to see is another Budget that asks working people and businesses to pay more because the Government was unwilling to tackle the parts of spending that are growing fastest.
